Democrat-Sponsored Poll Finds DeSantis in the Lead Over Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried
August 10, 2022 Updated 10:04 A.M. ET
WASHINGTON (FLV) – A Democrat-sponsored poll found that Gov. Ron DeSantis maintains a several point lead over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried in Nov.’s election.
Aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, Clarity Campaign Labs gives DeSantis a six-point lead over Fried and a three-point lead over Crist.
The poll was conducted from July 26-31 using a sample of 2,244, composed of 37% Democrat, 41% Republican, and 22% other. It was sponsored by Progress Florida and Florida Watch.
The aggregate of RealClearPolitics gives DeSantis an average 8.8 point lead over Crist and a 12.8 point lead over Fried, which involves a more selective choosing of pollsters. The last poll was from February.
However, the Democrat-sponsored poll has been shown to drastically overestimate Democrats in elections, FiveThirtyEight reports.
The ‘B/C’ rated pollster got the 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election wrong by over seven points, a 2016 Wisconsin Senate election wrong by over six points, a 2018 California House election wrong by over four points, all of which underestimated the Republican. FiveThirtyEight says they have called 54% of races correctly of the 12 polls they analyzed.
The FiveThirtyEight aggregate shows strong inconsistencies across the board in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, ranging from Crist having a 13 point lead to DeSantis having a 24 point lead.
The aggregator gives DeSantis a 94% chance of winning against Crist. The election will be held Nov. 8, 2022.
