July 11, 2022

DeSantis ‘Clearly Favored’ to Win Re-Election, Model Shows 95% Chance of GOP Victory

Governor Ron DeSantis speaking with attendees at the 2021 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida (Gage Skidmore).
Governor Ron DeSantis speaking with attendees at the 2021 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida (Gage Skidmore).

By Lydia Nusbaum

July 11, 2022 Updated 10:21 A.M. ET

TALLAHASSEE (FLV) – A FiveThirtyEight model depicts Gov. Ron DeSantis as “clearly” favored to win Florida’s election for governor. 

The model gives DeSantis a 95% chance of winning against Democratic candidate and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist. 

The model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. Out of the sample of 100 outcomes given, DeSantis wins 95 of them and Crist wins five.

It is based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. 

DeSantis has continued to significantly outpace his Democratic opponents in fundraising. The governor raised $10.2 million in May for his campaign and has a total of $112 million on-hand cash in his war chest.

DeSantis Brings War Chest to $112 Million, Raises $10.2 Million in May

Congressman Crist has raised about $1 million for the month of May. At that point, he had $6.3 million of on-hand cash.

The most recent polls from February show DeSantis beating Crist by 8.8 points. 

Crist is vying for the Democratic nomination against Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Most recent polling data shows Crist leading Fried by 19.3 points. 

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