Donald Trump’s campaign not taking Florida for ‘granted’ – how much the data says he can win by

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Florida has been trending in Republicans’ direction for years, swinging harder amidst the coronavirus pandemic along with the prominence of former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Democrats had increasingly been writing off Florida for statewide electoral victories in 2022, the same year DeSantis won a previously purple swing state by around 20 points, the kind of results typically seen in “ruby red” states like Alabama and Missouri.

Trump’s past performances in the state, party registration statistics and the latest polling can provide a glimpse into the kind of numbers the former president could be looking at come Nov. 5.

Florida’s Voice spoke with a senior advisor to Trump’s 2024 campaign, Brian Hughes, who said come November, Trump will “again demonstrate that Florida is Trump country.”

Hughes said that though the campaign expects a strong Florida showing for Trump, they’re not lightening their efforts.

“Purple state battles obviously play an important role in a national strategy, but we will not take Florida or any state for granted,” he said.

Trump’s 2016 and 2020 Florida victories

Trump won Florida in 2016 by a narrow 1.3% margin, when he defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to win the presidency.

Then, in 2020, Trump won Florida by a wider margin with a majority of the vote, 3.3% over then-candidate Joe Biden.

With the state moving to the right since 2020 by double digits, Trump can reasonably expect a margin in Florida greater than 3.3%, barring any major shift or surprise.

Party registration, historical trends and demographics

Florida Democrats have outnumbered state Republicans for multiple decades. In the 2000 election – notoriously close in Florida – there were nearly 400,000 more Democrats than Republicans.

And in 2016, when Trump defeated Clinton, Republicans trailed Democrats in registrations by a similar margin. In 2020, they trailed by a little more than 100,000.

In 2021, Republicans overtook Democrats. As of December 2023, the GOP led by more than 779,000, a monumental shift of more than one million in the party’s favor since 2016.

“In every state, especially in Florida, we see President Trump growing his lead across both parties, NPAs, and all demographics,” Hughes said.

According to the data and based on comparing turnout to party registration makeup of the state, Trump has the potential to win Florida by a 13% margin.

Statistically, in modern history, the Democratic candidate performs worse in Florida relative to the total registered Democrats in comparison to the Republican candidate.

That 13% margin is calculated based on a statistical average over 20 years; the final total could be even higher, but also lower, for Trump.

Hughes said Trump is making inroads with demographics across the board, namely Hispanic and Black Floridians.

“In Florida, we believe there are strong protections in place to ensure no corruption when it comes to protecting the sanctity of the election and the accurate counting of every legal vote,” Hughes said. “Both of these things mean the only surprise election night will be a victory margin even larger than expected.”

What the polls are saying

For Florida, there hasn’t been much 2024 general election polling, likely because of the increased perception it is a “red state.” There has been much more polling for swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, which will likely decide the winner of the election.

But according to the FiveThirtyEight compilation of Florida polls, Trump’s lead is as low as 5% and as high as 11%, with all polls conducted in the last few months of 2023.

One poll compiled in RealClearPolling‘s compilation from Emerson did find a tie between Trump and Biden, but is an outlier.

In 2020, the polling average for Florida was wrong, projecting a final Biden+0.9% victory, when it ended up being Trump+3.3%.

“President Trump holds dominant double-digit leads that we expect to see continue all the way to November,” Hughes said.

He said there will still be “many opportunities” through the election for a campaign rally in Florida, noting Trump has a “strong base of supporters” there.

“President Trump is a Florida resident and a longtime advocate for our state,” Hughes said.

When it comes to countrywide performance, Biden is facing a deep underwater average approval rating of 40.5%, with 55.1% disapproving, Jan. 31.

For comparison, Trump’s approval rating at this point in 2020 was 44.6% in the same metric.

The picture for Biden is also bleak in matchup polling against Trump, with the aggregate recently handing the former president an average 4.3% lead, an all-time high for him.

It sits at 3.6% as of Wednesday, still nearly 10 points ahead of his 2020 performance and more than five points ahead of 2016.

Recent polling has been giving Trump a lead in every swing state.

The closest state is Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolling.

Bloomberg released a poll on Wednesday handing Trump a 3% lead there and a wider lead in other swing states. Other polls in the aggregate hand Trump a 4% lead. One outlier handed Biden an 8% lead.

Above the numbers – making the case

While Biden has been pointing to a better-than-before economy and pinning the border crisis on Republicans, Hughes said Florida, “like the rest of the nation,” is tired of Biden’s job performance.

“The sovereignty of our borders is under attack every day as never before,” he said. “Abroad, those that seek our nation’s destruction laugh at the weakness of Biden and his feeble reactions to threats. At home, Biden claims economic success while families have never paid more for groceries or the basic necessities of life.”

Hughes said that Trump’s campaign is rhetorically and politically in a strong position because of Biden’s perceived failures among the public.

“His weakness and frailty on the world stage make us vulnerable to foreign enemies,” he said. “His liberal policies make daily life more expensive for our families. And his corrupt abuse of our legal systems to attack political enemies is so transparent that people are rightfully afraid that any one of them could be next.”

Hughes noted that Trump has already been president and argued Floridians will remember the country being “safer [and] more prosperous.”

“But in three short years, Biden has squandered that success,” he said.

“Crooked Joe also caves to pressure from environmental extremists by killing energy production and making us even more dependent on other nations when the resources here at home are ignored,” Hughes said. “The nation simply cannot survive another four years of Biden.”

Is there any path for Biden in Florida?

Biden visited Florida this week for a fundraiser, bringing in millions.

There, Biden referred to Trump as a “loser” and worked to persuade donors that he has a path, albeit a difficult one, to defeat Trump in his home territory.

To win, Biden would need a utopian combination of depressed Republican turnout, bolstered Democratic turnout and strong NPA appeal in the Sunshine State come election day.

Just over nine months from the election, data suggests a growing appetite for the Republican Party of Florida with its lead breaking 800,000, signifying a monumental shift required for the president to swing the state blue.

On Wednesday, DeSantis reacted to Biden’s hopes of winning Florida by saying “nope.” The governor dropped out of the 2024 primary and endorsed Trump this month after the Iowa caucus.