Duval election: GOP disunity takes down Davis, city council candidate unaffected

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (FLV) – In the 2023 Duval Unitary General Election, strong Republican turnout did not serve enough for the top of the ticket to prevail.

Daniel Davis, the Republican candidate for mayor, lost to Democrat Donna Deegan by 4.16%, according to unofficial results.

Republicans are outnumbered in the county by nearly 30,000 voters, or 4.23%. Despite that deficit, GOP voters entered the 7 p.m. poll close with a turnout advantage of approximately 3.25%, or 7,080 votes.

Despite that advantage, the first vote dump from Duval, which counted all early votes and just about all mail-in votes, handed Deegan a 13-point lead, which was almost physically impossible for Davis to overcome with the remaining election day votes.

However, that issue was unique for Davis, similar for Republican Jason Fischer for the property appraiser seat, but nonexistent for Republican Chris Miller for City Council At-Large Group 5.

Deegan, at the top of the ticket, ultimately saw a 7.41% turnout differential swing in favor of Democrats. That means she likely overperformed with independents and/or Republicans in comparison to Davis.

That’s even more likely when looking at the first round of the mayoral race, where Davis was embattled in a heated Republican field, only receiving 24.72% of the vote to Al Ferraro’s 16.24% and LeAnna Cumber’s 7.58%.

Florida GOP Chairman Christian Ziegler noted that in the face of solid turnout, Republicans could not overcome the “bloody primary” citywide.

“Good turnout effort, but not enough to overcome Voter Reg deficit + I loss + R flips post-bloody primary,” Ziegler said Wednesday morning.

“Impressive operation & GOP turnout, but not enough to overcome other factors tonight,” Ziegler said Tuesday night.

Even more notably, Republicans received a majority of the vote for mayor in the first election, meaning in May’s election, some could have felt alienated or unenthusiastic for Davis, perhaps the reason for the mayoral candidate underperforming turnout while city council candidate Miller overperformed.

In the face of Deegan’s victory, Republican Miller received the largest share of the vote of any candidate that night at 52.24%, a margin of victory of 4.48%.

He overperformed Republican turnout by 1.23%, and overperformed the county’s party registration margins by nearly 9%.

“Duval County remains a political battleground,” Duval GOP Chairman Dean Black said. “Although we are disappointed with the results, I am extremely proud of our team of volunteers and activists who poured their hearts into this fight.”

“We congratulate Republicans Chris Miller, Mike Gay and Raul Arias on their hard fought wins and for securing the GOP super majority on the City Council.”

Both Davis and Fischer were endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Fischer lost to Joyce Morgan for property appraiser by a slim margin of 1.4%.

While Republicans are disappointed to see a celebrating Democrat party under Chairwoman Nikki Fried Wednesday morning, the county’s Republican Party still overperformed versus the Democrat registration advantage in all three citywide races, including Deegan’s.

Republicans will maintain a supermajority on the Jacksonville City Council, serving as a check on Deegan.

“Love won tonight, and we made history,” Deegan said Tuesday evening, after the news of her victory. “We have a new day in Jacksonville because people chose unity over division—creating a broad coalition of people across the political spectrum that want a unified city.”

Davis conceded, saying Deegan “loves Jacksonville” and that he will “do everything” he can to ensure the Democrat is “successful in making Jacksonville the best Jacksonville it can be.”