Election model predicts double-digit Donald Trump Florida victory
FORT MYERS, Fla. – A new general election model projects a healthy victory for former President Donald Trump in Florida over President Joe Biden this November.
With the election under five months away, the model from Quantus Polls and News expects an average final vote share for Trump of 55.9% to Biden’s 44.1%, an 11.8-point win for the former president.
The margin is considerably higher than Trump’s 2020 win margin of just over three points, and 2016’s margin of just over one point.
The model also found that Trump’s likely vote share is expected to be anywhere from 54.7% to 57.1%, and Biden’s anywhere from 42.9% to 45.3% – meaning Trump’s win margin was found to be in the range of 9.4 points to 14.2 points.
That’s a touch more Democratic from the 2022 midterms, but turnout for Democrats was extraordinarily dwarfed by Republicans and right-leaning independents that year, which resulted in a Reconstruction Era-level of GOP control at the state level.
Quantus also ran a hypothetical scenario where third parties received 5% of the vote. The most popular third party candidate is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, along with Libertarian Chase Oliver, Green Jill Stein and others.
In the third party scenario, Trump’s vote share declined to 53.1%, but Biden’s decreased to 41.89%, resulting in a Trump+11.21% victory.
Historically, Florida has voted more Republican than the nation at-large, and present registration trends heavily favor the GOP, which is now reaching an edge of nearly 940,000 voters.
In its model, Quantus considered Florida’s “Republican bias,” such as the heavy registration gains for the GOP, Republicans’ typically higher turnout rate in the state, and Florida’s tendency to vote more conservative than the nation at-large.
“The state’s increasing Republican registration and declining Democratic registration, combined with historical voting patterns and our model’s projections, suggest that Florida is likely to remain a stronghold for the Republican candidate in the 2024 presidential election,” the report said.
Quantus utilized voter registration data and turnout data from sources such as the Florida Division of Elections and United States Election Project, used current available Florida polling data, and adjusted for demographic changes in Florida.
Access the full model report here.
Other forecasters believe Trump has a very easy path to victory in Florida. The Economist hands Trump a 93% chance, The Hill/DecisionDeskHQ gives him an 80% chance and FiveThirtyEight a 75% chance.
With the election under five months away, Florida has been a lesser-polled and less-paid attention to state on the electoral map, contrasting from just four years ago when the Biden campaign had hoped to win the Sunshine State.
Now, for forecasters, the question is less a matter of “if” Trump will win Florida’s 30 electoral votes, but by what margin he can defeat Biden in a former purple bellwether.
