February electoral college forecast: Trump sweeps most swing states, Biden improves

WASHINGTON, D.C. – As of Feb. 2, state-level polls are calling for former President Donald Trump to sweep nearly every swing state and narrowly win the popular vote in the Nov. 5 election against President Joe Biden.

It’s yet to be seen which direction polls will trend from February-onward, and by what magnitude.

However, as of the beginning of February, while polls continue to hand Trump career-high electoral performance among the public, some newer polls have begun suggesting a momentum shift.

Compared to Florida’s Voice’s January forecast, Trump has lost Pennsylvania but picked up Wisconsin, based on the RealClearPolling average.

Also since January, national polls have slightly narrowed in Biden’s favor, while Trump’s margins in swing states have increased, aside from Pennsylvania.

Below is how the electoral map would look, according to the polls, should the general election be held today.

How Trump compares to 2020 polling

Biden won the electoral college in 2020 with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.

The above forecast based on polling represents nearly all swing states flipping in Trump’s favor: Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.

On Feb. 2, 2020, Biden led Trump in the national polling aggregate by 5.4%.

Four years later, Trump’s current lead of 1.8% represents a shift in the former president’s favor of 7.2%.