FINAL POLL FORECAST: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucus
DES MOINES, Iowa – The Iowa caucus takes place on Monday, Jan. 15, and both major polling averages suggest a massive victory for former President Donald Trump as he navigates a slew of criminal charges in multiple jurisdictions along with efforts to keep him off multiple state primary ballots.
Below is what the polls are forecasting for the 2024 Republican Iowa presidential caucus, calculated by averaging the aggregates of FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolling, each outlet with slightly varying criteria for accepting pollster data.
| Candidate | Ranking | Vote share | Margin |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 52.60% | +33.9% |
| Nikki Haley | 2 | 18.7% | – |
| Ron DeSantis | 3 | 15.65% | – |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4 | 6.45% | – |
Editor’s note: Some polls utilized included former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s vote share, who dropped out Jan. 10. Resultingly, his support may cause further fluctuations in the final result of other candidates.
