How likely it is Florida’s abortion protection amendment will pass in November: polls, past results
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – “Florida is in play,” said Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried, after news broke of the Supreme Court of Florida not only upholding the state’s 15-week abortion ban and thus allowing the six week ban to take effect next month, but also permitting ballot placement this November for an initiative to constitutionally protect abortion.
While the initiative is certain to light a fire under Democrats fed up with Republicans’ evermore strict abortion laws in the Sunshine State – the six-week ban taking effect next month – public opinion polls and the 2022 midterms can give signs as to how strong this effort will perform in seven months.
To pass, ballot initiatives require at least 60% of the vote.
Aside from what polls have said about the support for abortion, or support for abortion restrictions in Florida, Democrats head into November with a record-steep voter registration deficit that is approaching 900,000 voters. In 2020, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Florida.
Because of the latest court ruling, and with 2024 being a presidential year, turnout is set to be higher across the board compared to midterms and off-year elections.
Polls have been split on whether such an initiative can pass in Florida
- Indeed, a poll late in 2023 from the University of North Florida handed the now-approved ballot initiative 62% support.
- On the surface, the poll has a margin of error of 4.37% – meaning approval/rejection based on UNF’s result is all but a total “tossup.”
- Digging deeper, UNF found that 53% of Republicans would support the initiative – which could prove hard to believe based on recent elections.
- Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida Republicans won statewide with about 60% of the vote in 2022 – after enacting a 15-week abortion ban, which is before the “viability” threshold of 20-25 weeks.
- A poll from 2022 from the University of South Florida – taken after the 15-week ban was signed – signals that the amendment would not have the public muster to hit 60%.
- 33.2% of respondents responded wanting to protect abortion access.
- However, the rest of the respondents favored restrictions:
- 20.5% wanted to outlaw restrictions except to protect the mother’s health and in cases of rape or incest;
- 13.2% wanted to leave abortion laws “as they currently stand” which, in Florida, was 15 weeks at the time of the poll;
- 9% wanted to outlaw all abortions.
- Applying those numbers to the ballot initiative would result 42.7% opposing it – meaning it would be impossible for the effort to hit 60%.
- 14.8% want to prohibit abortion “after a certain point” – a data point that could mean many different restriction proposals based on the respondent. Even so, it would not be enough to propel the effort over 60%.
How other states have voted on abortion amendments
- Ohio approved its own effort to make abortion a constitutional right. Even so, it gained just over 56% support.
- Kansas rejected an amendment that would have prevented a constitutional right to an abortion.
- Kentucky rejected an amendment similar to Kansas’.
- Michigan, which voted blue in the 2022 midterms, passed an amendment setting a right to “reproductive freedom” – but with just over 56% of the vote.
Of note, Michigan and Ohio – a swing-to-lean Democratic state and a lean Republican state – have each approved their own abortion protections by vote, but neither with 60%, the threshold in Florida.
