Model expects Florida GOP to retain all of its U.S. House seats and senator this November
WASHINGTON, D.C. – An election model expects the partisan makeup of Florida’s D.C. delegation to remain entirely unchanged after the 2024 election with a high degree of certainty.
Formulated by The Hill and DecisionDeskHQ, the U.S. House of Representatives model and U.S. Senate model calls for a 62% chance of Republicans to retain control of the House at-large, and 77% for the Senate.
The picture is much more certain at the state level, handing Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott an 85% chance of victory over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
In Florida, the model marks one Democratic seat “likely” and five Republican seats “likely” – the rest are “safe.”
Of note, the only non-incumbent expected to win this November so far is Republican Mike Haridopolos, the former president of the Florida Senate who is running in replacement of incumbent Republican Bill Posey.
Below is the model’s likelihood of victories for each district as of May 29 (* = incumbent):
- District 1: Matt Gaetz* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 2: Neal Dunn* (R), 98% chance
- District 3: Kat Cammack* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 4: Aaron Bean* (R), 94% chance
- District 5: John Rutherford* (R), 99% chance
- District 6: Michael Waltz* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 7: Cory Mills* (R), 94% chance
- District 8: Mike Haridopolos (R), 99% chance
- District 9: Darren Soto* (D), 95% chance
- District 10: Maxwell Frost* (D), greater than 99% chance
- District 11: Daniel Webster* (R), 97% chance
- District 12: Gus Bilirakis* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 13: Anna Paulina Luna* (R), 89% chance
- District 14: Kathy Castor* (D), 98% chance
- District 15: Laurel Lee* (R), 94% chance
- District 16: Vernon Buchanan* (R), 96% chance
- District 17: Greg Steube* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 18: Scott Franklin* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 19: Byron Donalds* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 20: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick* (D), greater than 99% chance
- District 21: Brian Mast* (R), 97% chance
- District 22: Lois Frankel* (D), 97% chance
- District 23: Jared Moskowitz* (D), 96% chance
- District 24: Frederica Wilson* (D), greater than 99% chance
- District 25: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz* (D), 98% chance
- District 26: Mario Diaz-Balart* (R), greater than 99% chance
- District 27: Maria Elvira-Salazar* (R), 91% chance
- District 28: Carlos Gimenez* (R), 98% chance
The result of such an election would keep Florida’s delegation the same – two Republican senators, 20 House Republicans and eight House Democrats.
