POLL: DeSantis Blows Out Democrat Opponents for Governor

By Eric Daugherty, Florida's Voice

February 15, 2022 Updated 9:05 AM ET

February 15, 2022 Updated 8:49 A.M. ET

TALLAHASSEE (FCV) – The 2022 Florida Gubernatorial Election is less than 9 months away and with campaign season kicking up, new waves of polls will begin to come out more frequently.

Republicans are set to likely overtake Democrats in both chambers of the U.S. Congress, and a new poll from Florida shows a continuation of the red wave trend.

According to a Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday, Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is on track to win reelection. Mason-Dixon is an A- rated poll by FiveThirtyEight, run by left-wing commentator Nate Silver.

In the poll, DeSantis leads Charlie Crist by 8 points and Nikki Fried by 11 points.

In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate, DeSantis leads Crist by an average of 5.8 points. He leads Fried by 10.3 points.

It is still earlier in the election cycle, and while polls at this level cannot reliably predict an exact point outcome, they can represent a shift and gauge in overall popularity.

According to the RCP aggregates for DeSantis, the new poll falls in line with all polls conducted this cycle. The Mason-Dixon release is continuing a statistical trend of DeSantis’ popularity raising throughout the latter part of the pandemic while that of his Democrat opponents are falling.

For example, last August, Susquehanna found DeSantis beating Crist by only 3. DeSantis’ margin of victory then increased over the months to 6, 6, and now 8. His margin over Fried has consistently been around 10 points.

DeSantis is expected to win reelection not only because of polling trends, but also because of fundraising.

DeSantis outraised both Fried and Crist combined in one month nearly 10 to 1, raising $10 million in January alone.

Donald Trump (R) won Florida in 2016 by 2.2 points. At the time, Florida was a bellwether purple state.

Since then, Republicans have increased their stronghold in Florida with Trump winning Florida by 3.4 points in 2020. Hispanic shifts to Republican played a large role in that change, it those same Hispanics who voted for Trump are likely supporting DeSantis this election.

DISCLAIMER: this is analysis, not an official election prediction. Final results cannot be determined from a single poll or even multiple polls.

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