The Polls Were Wrong in Florida, Underestimating DeSantis by 7 Points

TALLAHASSEE (FLV) – The polls predicted a red wave in Florida’s midterm election. But they were still wrong.

Gov. Ron DeSantis was long-expected to cruise to re-election. For a while, talk of a double-digit margin over Democrat Charlie Crist were Republicans’ wildest dreams and earlier on, polls pointing to such a feat were dismissed as outliers.

As the election drew nearer and DeSantis was faced with Hurricane Ian, polls widened and GOP confidence double-digit margins in statewide races grew.

RealClearPolitics paints a picture of DeSantis maintaining a strong lead for the entire campaign. All the way back in February, Mason-Dixon had him up 11, an outlier for the time. That poll was still off by more than 8 points, underestimating the Republican incumbent.

As the election approached, polls widened, and the final poll from Data for Progress (D) had DeSantis up 15. The final aggregate ticked DeSantis at +12.2%.

As it stands, DeSantis defeated Crist by around 19.5%, rounding the polling error average to 7.3%, underestimating DeSantis.

The most accurate poll in the spread dating back to the beginning of 2022 was from University of North Florida, which put DeSantis at +21 over Crist, thought of as impossible at the time. DeSantis only underperformed that poll by 1.5 points.

An even larger ‘underdog’ in the polling was U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who, at times, some believed was going to have a competitive Senate race with Val Demings.

In the end, Rubio’s margin was just a few points behind DeSantis’. Polls had Rubio up 8.8 points, still a comfortable margin. But results give Rubio a 16.5 point margin over Demings, rounding that polling error to 7.7%.

At one point, University of North Florida even had Demings up 4 points, and throughout late-Summer and early-Fall, the race was hovering in the 4-7 point range.

Read more about the red tsunami that swept across Florida in Tuesday’s election here.