Trump has a 94% chance of winning Florida: model
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – According to a new election model by The Economist, former President Donald Trump has a 94% chance of winning Florida this November.
For comparison, the same outlet gave Trump a 20% chance at winning the state in 2020, when he indeed won it by over 3% and by higher than his 2016 margin.
The Economist predicts, as of June 15, a Trump Florida victory of 9% over President Joe Biden.
Overall, the model gives Trump a nearly 70% chance at winning the electoral college.
Other models, like DecisionDeskHQ and FiveThirtyEight, give Trump less than a 60% chance at an electoral college victory, and a greater than 70% chance at winning Florida.
And in the RealClearPolling average, Trump leads Biden by 7.6% in Florida.
The aggregate includes a recent poll from Florida Atlantic University that oversampled Democrats by 10%, which still found Trump leading Biden.
With abortion and marijuana on the ballot this November, Florida Democrats have remained hopeful the state will be “in play.”
The Biden campaign also launched a senior outreach effort in Hillsborough County this week, prompting mockery from Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power.
