May 2024 presidential election forecast: Trump wins every swing state, polling data suggests
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Wednesday, May 1 is just over six months from the 2024 presidential election, and polling data has suggested a slight resurgence of former President Donald Trump nationally and continued leads in every swing state, a stark contrast from 2020 polling patterns.
Similar to the April forecast based on RealClearPolling‘s averages of dozens of polls, Trump is forecasted to win with 312 electoral votes to President Joe Biden’s 226.
Trump’s lead has narrowed in Michigan, though, down to just 1.2%. He lost, and then re-took the lead over the past month in Pennsylvania, now ahead by just 1%.
Notably, across all the swing states – North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Wisconsin – Trump trails in just two of around two dozen polls, both by 2% in Michigan.
His strongest leads are in North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – all near, or above, 4%.
Trump’s narrowest leads are in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Trump leads by 1.5%. At this point in 2020, Biden led by 5.3% – marking a shift to Trump of 6.8%.
Below is a map depiction of the electoral college breakdown between Trump and Biden based on the polls as of May 1.
