April electoral college forecast: Trump picks up PA, sweeps swing states as national polls narrow
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Seven months from the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump has picked up steam in the electoral college but lost some muster nationally, according to polls over the last month.
March’s forecast, according to the RealClearPolling aggregate, suggested Trump would win the electoral college with 293 votes to President Joe Biden’s 245.
Before last month, Trump was struggling in Pennsylvania – a state that if he wins, its 19 electoral college votes could theoretically all but guarantee a presidential victory for the former president.
While polling in a state like Wisconsin has been more favorable to Biden – though polls have severely underestimated Trump in the prior two elections – Biden has lost ground in Pennsylvania, potentially a warning sign for the Biden campaign.
Biden has led in Pennsylvania for the first several months of 2024. But as new polls came in, Trump took the lead in the Keystone State mid-March.
Wisconsin remains a razor-thin Trump +0.6% margin in the polls, while Michigan has also narrowed slightly to Trump+3.4%. However, it’s worth noting that since January, Biden has not led a single Michigan poll.
Below is the electoral map, according to the polling averages, as of April 3.
With Pennsylvania’s public opinion shifting in Trump’s direction, the Republicans’ path to victory becomes ever increasingly easy. For example, Trump would win the election outright if he wins both Pennsylvania and Georgia (270).
Trump has multiple other combinations if Pennsylvania remains in his column. If he won only Michigan, that would result in a 269-269 tie, sending it to the states, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations.
Other than those scenarios, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he’ll need two more of any of the remaining states to win.
However, the polling in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is very narrow – under 1% in either direction – so even a slight shift could determine the outcome of the presidential election.
While swing state polling is good for Trump, national polling improves for Biden
Even though the election won’t be won by a national popular vote, Biden has picked up some steam in those polls.
As of April 3, Biden only trails Trump by 0.8%, a statistical tie, because most polls have margins of error anywhere from 1% to nearly 4%.
Still, Biden led on April 3, 2020 against Trump by 5.9% nationally. Compared to four years ago, that is a swing for Trump of 6.7%.
