Florida paper amplifies hope that Democrats have ‘opening’ to win the state: what data says
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – A columnist from the Palm Beach Post believes that Florida Democrats have an “opening this election” to overcome recent Republican advantages in the Sunshine State.
“The issue is whether Democrats will make a play for Florida, or write off its Electoral College votes in 2024,” wrote John A. Tures, opinion contributor for the Post.
Tures’ post drew fire on social media. The contributor is a professor at a college in Georgia, per a third party site’s bio of Tures and Muck Rack.
The column relied on citing popular vote results of past presidential elections in Florida, swinging in both Democratic and Republican directions over the past several decades, and not very frequently by wide margins in recent years:
I calculated the average popular vote tally for both political parties from 2000-2020, and from the 1976-1996 time frame, with six elections each. Sure the party totals from the 2016 and 2020 elections dipped a little but over the last 20 years, Democrats averaged a popular vote total of 48.77%. Republicans over the same time managed only a mean of 49.75%, with independents picking up less than a percentage point.
Tures further argued that Democrats have a chance at taking Florida if they utilize a “different issue,” such as abortion, climate change and insurance costs.
The writer used Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan’s victory last year – which came off the heels of a divisive local GOP primary, a perfect storm for the Duval Democrat – as evidence that the Florida Democratic Party is starting a “reversal” in political trends.
Tures, though, failed to mention 2024’s recent local elections where the GOP flipped multiple areas from blue to red and trounced a large portion of the Democrats’ “Take Back Local” candidates.
Not to mention, the Republican Party of Florida is on the verge of leading state Democrats by 900,000 or more voters, an unprecedented margin that is approximately a 1 million swing from the 2020 presidential election.
Recent polling additionally suggests Florida will swing hard in favor of former President Donald Trump and Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott in November.
“Florida has been trending more Democratic than it has in earlier decades,” Tures claimed.
“Once again, according to polling voters care about the economy and inflation, where @JoeBiden is failing,” said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power. “Floridians don’t care for the manufactured issues the [Democrats] are pushing.”
“What data is that lol,” said prominent Gov. Ron DeSantis supporter Robert J. Salvador, posting the results of the 2020 and 2022 elections, which both swung hard Republican compared to prior elections.
