Florida Republicans are close to flipping three counties as Democrats face turnout disaster

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – With presidential preference primaries and several municipal elections taking place across Florida, Republicans have not only been dominating turnout in wake of Democrats canceling their own presidential primary, but also continuing to grow their registration lead.

While Republicans’ lead statewide is now over 855,000, as of March 14 per data compiled by Florida’s Voice, the party is getting perilously close to flipping three more counties red.

For instance, Madison County currently only has 254 more Democratic voters than Republicans. A small county, its margin is D+2.16%.

The county with the narrowest percent margin is Hillsborough County, where Democrats now hold just a 1.24% advantage, or a little over 10,000 voters.

Duval County is another hopeful county for Republicans, encompassing the Jacksonville area. There, Democrats hold a 2.78% lead, under 18,000 voters.

Another county is also trending Republican, and has been for years – Miami-Dade County now only hands Democrats a 5% registration advantage.

Current trends spell disaster for state Democrats, especially in a presidential year when registrations across the board are supposed to already be kicking up for both parties.

Since 2022, both Democrats and Republicans have lost voters, mainly because of the decrease in enthusiasm to register paired with voter list maintenance.

However, since late-2023, Republicans have gained voters while Democrats have continued losing thousands.

Luckily for Democrats, as of March 14, that trend seems to be slowly reversing, turning from a continuous hemorrhage to stagnation.

In regard to the 2024 primaries, a few counties are holding municipal elections as well, which occurs alongside the presidential preference primary.

The issue for Democrats is that the state party canceled their primary: across the state, as of March 14, around 700,000 Floridians have voted, a number that will continue spiking as early voting draws to an end and election day takes place March 19.

Of those, over 630,000 are Republicans, or 92% of voters. Only 5.47% have been Democrats.

According to the state, Orange, Palm Beach and Pinellas County all are holding local elections on March 19, the same day as the presidential primary. More are scheduled for other dates in March, April and May in other counties.

However, with the Democrats not having a presidential primary in these counties, turnout is dominated by Republicans, which could spell doom for local Democrats.

For example, in Orange County, as of Thursday, 80% of voters so far are Republican, while only 15% have been Democrats.

The county where Democrats have fared better is Palm Beach, where 56% have been Republicans while 32% have been Democrats. While slightly more encouraging compared to other counties, Palm Beach is a county where Democrats lead voter registration by over 6%.

The picture is also bleak in Pinellas County, where 77% of voters so far are Republican and 14% are Democratic.

The favorable GOP trends have continued into 2024 as the state party gained new leadership in Chairman Evan Power.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried recently chimed in on the state of Democratic politics in the Sunshine State, worrying about “voter suppression” in the state, along with a lack of organization.

“Florida is an under-organized, voter suppressed state,” Fried said. “When you have a Democratic Party who’s able to overcome all of those issues, which is what we are working on last year and this year, it puts Florida in play.”

‘Battleground’ no more? Florida Republicans approach general election with 850,000+ lead