‘Battleground’ no more? Florida Republicans approach general election with 850,000+ lead

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – In the previously perceived presidential battleground state of Florida, state-level Republicans are heading into the 2024 presidential election cycle positioned nearly one million voters better than 2020.

According to county-level data compiled by Florida’s Voice, state Republicans hold a registration lead over Democrats of 854,318 as of March 4.

That leads contrasts from the last Division of Elections report earlier this year, which handed Republicans a lead of still under 800,000 as of late-2023.

“Our grassroots are keeping the pedal to the metal by registering more voters every day,” said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power. “Floridians continue to reject the radical left’s agenda and are helping us make Florida a more Republican state.”

Both parties have lost voters since the 2022 election: Republicans lost over 100,000 voters as rolls are cleaned up, but Democrats have hemorrhaged more than 610,000 voters during the same time frame.

What’s more is that for the first time in months, Republicans have gained voters since the prior official state registration report. Democrats did not, however, still losing a couple thousand voters from late last year.

Republicans, on the other hand, have gained a raw total of over 60,000 voters since the end of 2023.

While the exact number can change as voter rolls are cleaned out, the trends remain strongly in Florida Republicans’ favor. Registrations typically pick up across the board heading into presidential election years as voters prepare to select their preferred candidate come November.

As for the general election on Nov. 5, former President Donald Trump won Florida in 2020 by 3.3%. At the time, Democrats held a registration lead of over 100,000 voters.

Compared to 2020, Florida Republicans are positioned nearly one million voter registrations better in 2024.

That GOP lead can still grow heading into November, unless Democrats, under the leadership of new Chairwoman Nikki Fried, can increase their registration pace.

Florida’s Voice reported in January how current data suggests the former president can win the once-was swing state by a double digit margin, based on historical data, polling and registration data.

A Trump 2024 campaign senior advisor had told Florida’s Voice that Trump is prepared to “again demonstrate that Florida is Trump country.”

“Purple state battles obviously play an important role in a national strategy, but we will not take Florida or any state for granted,” the advisor, Brian Hughes, said.

Hughes said that though the campaign expects a strong Florida showing for Trump, they’re not lightening their efforts.

With the election around eight months away, The Hill and DecisionDeskHQ’s aggregate for Florida hands Trump a lead over Biden of more than 9%.

The state has much less polling data at this point compared to 2020 and 2016 when it was more contentious, likely indicative of it becoming increasingly out-of-reach for a Democratic presidential candidate.