More forecasters project hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season, kicks off in under two months
MIAMI – More forecasters are predicting a very active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Colorado State University released its forecast for the upcoming season, kicking off June 1. The forecasters there are predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
For context, the average from 1991-2020 for named storms was just over 14, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
“When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than
normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds
blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the university said. “A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water.”
“In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes,” it said.
The upcoming season is predicted to occur during a La Niña phase, which produces more favorable hurricane conditions in the Atlantic.
On top of CSU, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, commonly known as the “Euro” weather models, is calling for 21 named storms and around 11 hurricanes.
The latest forecasts come after AccuWeather released its own outlook, described as “explosive.”
AccuWeather is predicting 20-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-7 major hurricanes – and of these, 4-6 “direct U.S. impacts.”
AccuWeather pointed to warm sea surface temperatures, primely in the Atlantic Main Development Region, which is the area of water stretching from the western coast of Africa directly west into the Caribbean.
The globe is also set to enter a La Niña period, which is more favorable for Atlantic hurricanes developing and traveling toward the Americas. 2023 was an El Niño year, which typically contains more wind shear slicing up the ability of Atlantic hurricanes to strengthen and continue moving west.
Compared to the 2023 season, AccuWeather expects there could be up to more than double the amount of major hurricanes: in 2023, there were three, and in 2024, AccuWeather expects up to seven.
AccuWeather even predicts that the list of tropical cyclone names could be totally exhausted, resulting in meteorologists having to resort to a supplemental list of names once the first 21 are used.
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
