AccuWeather predicts ‘explosive’ Atlantic hurricane season, at least 4 direct U.S. impacts
MIAMI – AccuWeather is predicting an “explosive” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and several direct impacts on the U.S.
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season is host to 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
But this year, AccuWeather is predicting 20-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-7 major hurricanes – and of these, 4-6 “direct U.S. impacts.”
An important note surrounding hurricane season forecasting is that while seasons can be host to a high number of storms, it can feel “less active” to residents of the U.S. if the storms by-and-large curve away from the mainland.
For example, in 2023, there were 19 name storms – but of these, only four directly impacted the U.S., with Hurricane Idalia being the strongest of the year in terms of U.S. impacts.
AccuWeather also warned of the risk of “rapid intensification” of storms thanks to favorable conditions. An example of a dangerous storm that rapidly intensified was Hurricane Ian in 2022.
The weather outlet also said that southern Florida and Florida’s Panhandle are the two regions more at risk of direct impacts, along with the Texas coast and the Carolinas.
The season is only two months away, starting June 1 and running through the last day of November.
Why forecasters expect 2024’s hurricane season to be highly active
AccuWeather pointed to warm sea surface temperatures, primely in the Atlantic Main Development Region, which is the area of water stretching from the western coast of Africa directly west into the Caribbean.
The globe is also set to enter a La Niña period, which is more favorable for Atlantic hurricanes developing and traveling toward the Americas. 2023 was an El Niño year, which typically contains more wind shear slicing up the ability of Atlantic hurricanes to strengthen and continue moving west.
Compared to the 2023 season, AccuWeather expects there could be up to more than double the amount of major hurricanes: in 2023, there were three, and in 2024, AccuWeather expects up to seven.
AccuWeather even predicts that the list of tropical cyclone names could be totally exhausted, resulting in meteorologists having to resort to a supplemental list of names once the first 21 are used.
