Why DeSantis is targeting Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina for 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (FLV) – Every presidential primary cycle, candidates in both parties typically target a slew of states that hold a tiny fraction of party delegates, which are ultimately required across all 50 states to become a given party’s nominee.

Both Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump, understood as the only two viable candidates who can receive the Republican nomination in 2024 – Trump as the frontrunner – will be in Iowa this week.

Iowa holds just 40 votes – or delegates – when it comes to the party’s final nomination ceremony at the Republican National Convention, which will take place in 2024 on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

For comparison, in 2020, there were a total of 2,551 delegates.

DeSantis is polling around 30 points behind Trump in the aggregate polling – all of which were conducted before his 2024 announcement.

Those national poll numbers are compounded by other polls also giving Trump primary leads over DeSantis on the state level.

While the polls do have their flaws – for example, polling on candidates like Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin and former Vice President Mike Pence, both of which are not declared candidates and both being unclear as to whether they’re going to run for president – the DeSantis campaign still has a popularity gap to overcome.

Why are DeSantis and Trump dashing for states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, all of which are a small share of the total delegate count, and much smaller than large-delegate states like California, Florida and New York?

Even though Iowa and New Hampshire are small states, they are early predictors of a candidate’s viability and momentum simply because political observers, potential and current donors, and voters care about the results.

Both Trump and DeSantis have been battling for Iowa and New Hampshire endorsements – both gaining lots.

The governor is visiting Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday as part of his campaign launch – marking his third trip since March, before his campaign officially began.

Early momentum

In the 2016 packed Republican primary field between frontrunner Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the first several primary states were solid predictors of the primary winner.

Iowa was competitive in the 2016 primaries: Cruz received 8 delegates and 28% of the vote, Trump received 7 delegates and 24% of the vote, and Rubio received 7 delegates and 23% of the vote.

Around a week later was New Hampshire, where Trump emerged with 11 delegates and 35% of the vote, more than any other candidate.

Trump went on to win South Carolina – the third primary state – with 33% of the vote. Because it’s a “winner take all” state, he received all 50 delegates.

In total, those early primary states handed Trump 68 delegates. He went on to become the GOP nominee, and performed better than the other candidates when totaling up delegate win counts through the primary season.

With Trump’s large base of support, consistently polling at or above 50% among primary voters pre-DeSantis 2024 announcement, DeSantis’ campaign would need to convince Republican primary voters that the Florida governor has momentum and growing popularity – with hopes of that momentum bleeding into other states’ primaries throughout the season.

Otherwise, Republican voters might not feel a need to defect from a Republican with wide party popularity and the experience of already having been president.

When it comes to Democrats, the winner of Iowa has correctly predicted all party nominees for every cycle since President Bill Clinton.

For Republicans, though, the last time the Iowa winner won the nomination was in 2000 and 2004 with President George W. Bush.

A more accurate predictor of ultimate success for Republicans in recent cycles has been New Hampshire.

Since Bush in 2004, the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary has gone on to be the party’s nominee.

On defense

As DeSantis’ team eyes Iowa and other early states, the former president’s team is looking to combat any perceived momentum in the early states from the Florida governor, with Trump now being set to meet with “hundreds of grassroots leaders and supporters” in the state.

First, Trump will appear for an in-studio interview with Simon Conway, who hosts 1040 WHO Des Moines, on Wednesday, May 31.

Then, on Thursday, former president will be making an appearance in Clive, Iowa, which is known as the location for the first-in-the-nation caucus for the Republican nomination.

The event is scheduled to be recorded in Iowa on June 1 and will be broadcast at 9 p.m. on the same day. Hannity is expected to facilitate the discussion and engage with questions from the audience.

Also June 1, Trump’s campaign said he will attend the Westside Conservative Breakfast in Urbandale, along with hosting a luncheon with some of the state’s faith leaders in Des Moines.

Even before DeSantis declared his 2024 run, his visits to Iowa were contended by Trump, who was previously set to host a rally on the same day the governor was making rounds in the state.

That rally was cancelled because of tornado concerns.

DeSantis’ Iowa visit is part of a “Great American Comeback Tour,” which, directly after Iowa, will feature New Hampshire and South Carolina visits.