March electoral college forecast: Trump maintains path to victory as polls hold steady
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Less than eight months from the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump’s pathway to 270 electoral votes remains unchanged from last month over President Joe Biden.
In February’s forecast, Trump picked up Wisconsin while Biden picked up Pennsylvania. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina have remained tilting or leaning towards Trump’s column.
A new round of national polling has expanded Trump’s since February, however, to 2.3%.
While Michigan remains in Trump’s column, the race there has narrowed compared to prior months.
Below is the polls’ forecasted 2024 electoral college map as of March 4. States that are less than a 5% margin are indicated in light red or blue. Each darker shade indicates a higher likelihood and higher margin for the given candidate’s victory.
Trump’s and Biden’s electoral college totals remain unchanged from February’s data. Pennsylvania is the closest state, with Biden holding just a 0.8% lead.
How Trump compares to 2020 polling
On this day in the 2020 election, Biden led popular vote polls by 5.1% to Trump’s current lead of 2.3%. That marks a 7.4% swing in the former president’s favor from four years ago.
