Sabato Crystal Ball Marks DeSantis’ Race as ‘Safe Republican’ as Early Voting Continues

FORT MYERS (FLV) – As polls show Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist an average of 12.3 points and Republicans make gains in early voting, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted the Florida governor race to “safe Republican.”

The crystal ball previously had DeSantis’ race as “likely Republican.” They also changed Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s rating against Democrat Stacey Abrams from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.”

“In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) margin and if he will run for president than whether he’ll lose to Charlie Crist (D),” they explained.

“Florida and Georgia were a couple of the closer states in the 2020 presidential election. Next week, we are expecting their results to be more decisive — and the same party should take both,” they went on.

Author J. Miles Coleman explained that as DeSantis has helped Florida recover from Ian, Floridians gave him strong marks for his performance.

“Recently, parts of Florida were hit hard by Hurricane Ian. Though DeSantis’s antics have often been controversial, he has spent the last few weeks overseeing the recovery effort — and making positive headlines in the process.” He said DeSantis and President Joe Biden working together on the recovery effort was a “cruel twist.”

Even aside from polls and early voting, party registration is deeply unfavorable for Democrats. Republicans had a net increase over the Democrats of 440,192, Coleman says: “The only county where Democrats made a net gain was Okaloosa, which is still a deeply Republican county.”

At the time of reporting, with around a week left of early voting, Republicans already lead Democrats by over 140,000 – that margin alone does not include which Independents are voting for DeSantis over Crist, which polls have suggested will swing in favor of the incumbent Republican.

In 2020, that number was flipped – when Donald Trump won Florida by over 3 points, Democrats lead Republicans in early and mail-in voting by over 100,000.

“Florida Democrats, as a party, have a lot of rebuilding to do — a reality that the results next week might make even more painfully clear. Florida goes to Safe Republican.”