Tropical cyclone could form in Caribbean, Gulf through October: National Weather Service

MIAMI – With hurricane season being quiet for Florida since Hurricane Idalia’s destruction in August, the National Weather Service has noted tropical cyclone formation possibilities for the Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico as October continues.

Hurricane season peaks in mid September. The season ends Nov. 30.

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is up to a 20% chance that a cyclone could form in the southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean.

For context, Hurricane Idalia, which battered the Florida Big Bend region as a major storm, came from the eastern Pacific and ultimately strengthened in the Caribbean before trekking north directly into the peninsula.

Development chance is much higher for the next week in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, however. A disturbance is currently forecasted to form off the west coast of Mexico, but not expected to make a sharp curve while maintaining enough strength to worry the mainland U.S.

What’s good news for Florida, however, is that the chance of development, while present, is low.

At the time of reporting, the major weather models, including the American and European, have virtually zero agreement in their operational runs regarding cyclonic development that poses a threat to Florida through mid October.

Tropical Storm Philippe is seated near the Leeward Islands and is forecasted to travel sharply north and pose no threat to Florida.