What Florida’s party registration trends can tell us about the outcome of a Trump-Biden rematch
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The 2024 election is shaping up to be the first year in decades were Florida is not a pivotal, competitive swing state.
Before 2020, Florida had voted for the winning presidential candidate 10 of 11 elections going back to 1976. The only exception was the 1992 election of Democratic candidate Bill Clinton versus Republican George H. W. Bush.
But in 2020, as much of the swing states trended Democratic from former President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, Florida swung right: Trump’s margin of victory there went from 1.2% over Hillary Clinton to about 3.3% over President Joe Biden.
Since then, Republicans have swung party registrations deeply in their favor, previously trailing by hundreds of thousands of registered voters to now leading by nearly 900,000, according to data as of April 1 compiled by Florida’s Voice.
In Florida, Democrats have historically underperformed their registration totals
According to data back to 2000, in each election, the Republican presidential candidate had a higher ratio of party registrations-to-overall votes.
In 2000, Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore received each just over 2.9 million votes in the Sunshine State.
Bush ultimately won by a razor thin margin of just a few hundred votes – but overall, the state Democrats outnumbered Republicans that year by nearly 400,000.
In the most recent election of 2020, Democrats led Republicans by a little more than 110,000 voters. Despite this, Trump achieved more than 300,000 more final votes than Biden – another example of the GOP candidate obtaining a higher ratio compared to registrations.
If trends hold, November looks bleak for Biden
Recent polls suggesting Florida being in the Trump+5-10% range aside, voter registration trends versus presidential candidate performance alone suggest the Sunshine State may be a lost cause on the presidential level for Democrats.
In 2022, Republicans indeed swept the state by around 20 points; but midterms are not always predictive of presidential turnout.
For example, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Tudor Dixon by nearly 11%, but polls there suggest Trump is in the lead over Biden – and Trump won the state in 2016.
Still, Florida’s midterms were so overwhelming that analysts and forecasters believe Biden shouldn’t expect anything positive out of the Sunshine State in November.
Even in a strong overperformance, Florida trends right from 2020 and Biden comes up short
One possible explanation for the registration gap widening in Republicans’ favor is right-leaning independents choosing to finally declare themselves Republican, leaving the no party affiliation pool of voters considerably more left-leaning, thus “balancing the scale” more than GOP optimists might expect.
Even so, only future elections can prove if that’s the case, with 2024 being the first year where Republicans hold such an edge over Democrats by registration.
If Biden and Trump were to achieve their 2020 turnout ratios by party, Trump would win by over 13%.
- Still, over time, Democratic presidential candidates in Florida have improved their final vote totals compared to registered Democrats.
- With less Democrats being registered in Florida, necessarily, a higher proportion of their votes come from non-Democrats compared to the GOP candidate’s share coming from non-Republicans.
In a theoretical “worst case” scenario for Trump, assume Florida’s independent pool of voters is now further left-leaning than it once was, and Democrats become the “over performers” versus their party membership.
- Again, Biden comes up short and Florida votes to the right of how it did in 2020: Trump wins by nearly 5%.
- This would be an underwhelming result for onlookers comparing it to the 2022 midterms where Republicans won in a 20% landslide – but it’s important to note, again, the vast turnout differentials that typically occur between presidential and midterm years.
Biden’s campaign is still dumping some resources into Florida, last week announcing his leadership team there. Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried has maintained that Florida will be competitive in November.
