One month from Iowa caucus, Trump remains nearly 30 points ahead of GOP field

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – One month out from the Iowa Republican presidential caucus, former President Donald Trump has retained polling strength over the rest of the field, according to two major polling aggregates.

RealClearPolitics hands Trump an even 50% support among likely Iowa caucus voters. Gov. Ron DeSantis comes in second at 19.3%, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 16.7%, on average.

FiveThirtyEight, another outlet that uses multiple polls to calculate an aggregate, hands Trump a similar 47.7% support for the Iowa caucus, DeSantis at 19.1% and Haley at 15.9%.

Across both aggregates, Trump leads by nearly 30 points his closest competitor, DeSantis.

Iowa’s caucus will take place Jan. 15, 2024.

The Hawkeye State has been a primary focus of DeSantis’ 2024 campaign. He has locked in the endorsement from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Iowa faith leader Bob Vander Plaats.

Vander Plaats, vocally pro-DeSantis since his endorsement, has dismissed the polls in Iowa as likely “fake,” arguing the Iowa caucus will be closer than polls expect.

He cited a report from the Des Moines Register detailing how some Iowa caucus-goers said endorsements of DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley aren’t very important to their vote.

The Des Moines Register poll found Trump at 51% support for the caucus, DeSantis at 20% and Haley slightly behind at 16%.

Vander Plaats scathed the reporting that around 20% of GOP Iowa caucus-goers have an unfavorable view of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has also endorsed DeSantis.

“This data point proves the Caucus is much closer than [this] fake poll’s conclusion,” Vander Plaats said.

When asked about polls, DeSantis has maintained that voters have the final say in choosing candidates, not polling results.

While a focus of DeSantis’, the Iowa caucus has in recent American electoral history not been an indicator of who will go on to be the GOP nominee in contested primaries.

In 2016, Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus narrowly, but Trump went on to win New Hampshire and the GOP nomination.

And in 2012, Rick Santorum won the GOP Iowa caucus, but Mitt Romney eventually won the nomination.

While former Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain won the Republican nomination in 2008, he placed fourth in Iowa’s caucus.

However, George W. Bush, who went onto become a Republican president, did win the Iowa caucus in 2000.

Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds predicted this week that Iowa would be a “massive win” for Trump.

“President Donald J. Trump was an American Farmer First president,” Donalds said. “During his administration, he prioritized our farmers and ranchers and provided historic support to this critical industry.”

“Every Republican must rally behind President Trump and get ready to take back the White House. #TRUMP2024,” he said.