Polling’s inaccurate history with Ron DeSantis and what it means for the 2024 primaries

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Heading into the 2024 presidential primary, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign has emphasized a strong ground game in anticipation of proving the polls wrong most especially in Iowa.

Iowa polling suggests DeSantis will take third place in the state’s caucus despite having the endorsement of major state leaders like Gov. Kim Reynolds and faith leader Bob Vander Plaats, along with a massive ground game and a large amount of pledged caucusgoers.

The polls call for DeSantis to achieve around 15.6% of the vote.

The polling suggests former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will take second place with 18.7%, while former President Donald Trump is projected to run away with the state with 52.6% of the vote, or a lead of nearly 34%.

Polls have underestimated DeSantis in both of his Florida governor races

In 2018, when DeSantis had the endorsement of Trump against Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum for governor, final polling forecasts called for the former congressman to lose by 3.6%.

He ultimately won by a razor thin 0.4%. One poll from Quinnipiac right before the election even had him down 7%.

The polls in 2018 were wrong about DeSantis by an average of 4%, underestimating his support.

In 2022, polls expected DeSantis to not only win his reelection, but win by a landslide.

Final 2022 polling handed DeSantis a hefty 12.2% average lead over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist. In the end though, the governor won reelection by 19.4%.

In that election, the polls were wrong about DeSantis by an average of 7.2%, again underestimating his support.

Caucuses are vastly different from general elections

In the Iowa caucus, Republican Party members must meet in the evening to cast their preference for who their party’s nominee ought to be.

That is in contrast to primaries and elections, when polling locations typically open in the morning, are open all day and close in the evening.

A caucus inherently lends itself more to rewarding candidates with strong ground game and enthusiasm because it is more involved and more restrictive.

Iowa is also facing a blizzard and severe deep freeze, meaning Iowans who want to make their voices heard must put even more effort to get out the door to caucus locations.

Even a generous polling error won’t hand DeSantis a victory over Trump in Iowa

The average polling error across 2018 and 2022 was 5.6%. With DeSantis down over 30% in Iowa, previous margins that underestimated DeSantis in Florida would have to be wrong several multiples of what they were to put the governor in striking distance of Trump.

However, even a small polling error against DeSantis could propel him to second place in Iowa. He was ranked second in the state for the entire 2024 primary cycle until the new year, when Haley’s support surged across polling outlets.

If prior polling errors for DeSantis remain similar for Iowa, the governor could take second in Iowa with closer to 20% support, as opposed to the predicted third place near 15%.

The scene gets bleaker after Iowa, whether DeSantis achieves second or third

In New Hampshire, the RealClearPolling aggregate placed DeSantis behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has now dropped out.

Even so, polls suggest DeSantis was around 1.5% above businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, 6.5% to 5%.

Assuming Christie’s support distributes evenly, the governor would take third place in New Hampshire, where Haley polls much higher than she does in Iowa near 30%. Trump is polling near 44%.

If, and when, DeSantis will drop out

The governor and his team starkly denied any allegation he intends to drop out, even assuming he loses the Iowa caucus to Trump.

DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin shot down the rumor, saying “Team Trump must be getting nervous” and characterizing it as “fake news.”

“Ron DeSantis is in this for the long haul,” Griffin said.

Fox News reporter Bill Melugin said DeSantis also personally denied the rumor.

“Those reports are categorically false,” DeSantis reportedly told Melugin, calling the report a “fabricated lie.”