Trump holds steady lead over Biden for three months straight, metric finds

2024 Election

By Eric Daugherty

Published Dec. 11, 2023, 9:23 a.m. ET | Updated Dec. 11, 2023

<a href=https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/50043111327>Former President Donald Trump speaking with supporters at an "An Address to Young Americans" event hosted by Students for Trump and Turning Point Action at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Ariz., June 23, 2020.</a> (Photo/Gage Skidmore, Flickr)

Former President Donald Trump speaking with supporters at an "An Address to Young Americans" event hosted by Students for Trump and Turning Point Action at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Ariz., June 23, 2020. (Photo/Gage Skidmore, Flickr)

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Former President Donald Trump has led President Joe Biden in the national 2024 polling average for three straight months, an aggregated metric has found.

As of Monday, Trump holds an average 2.2% lead over Biden for a 2024 matchup, according to RealClearPolitics.

The metric, which has a running tally of more than a dozen polls aggregated, estimates Trump’s election day support around 46.6% and Biden’s at 44.4%.

Trump has held a slightly variating lead over the current president since mid-September.

Additionally, the same metric has Trump overperforming both his 2016 and 2020 election cycle numbers at the current point during those elections.

At this point during the 2020 cycle, Biden was leading by 8.8%, representing Trump’s overperformance of around 10%.

And at the same time in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was leading by 3.3%. The metric slightly overestimated Trump’s opponents’ support in both presidential elections slightly.

Trump has maintained polling strength in the 2024 Republican primary field as well, holding a lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis by around 47%.

The former president’s average national support is over 60% in-party, the metric found.

It places DeSantis at 12.7% and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley close behind at 12.4%.

The Iowa caucuses will take place on Jan. 15, where Trump also holds a hefty lead.

Before then, CNN will host a primary debate. Multiple other debates will take place in New Hampshire thereafter.

The Republican National Committee recently halted their own hosting of official debates, leaving it up to candidates and news networks.

“We have held four successful debates across the country with the most conservative partners in the history of a Republican primary,” the RNC’s Committee on Presidential Debates said. “We have no RNC debates scheduled in January and any debates currently scheduled are not affiliated with the RNC.”

“It is now time for Republican primary voters to decide who will be our next President and candidates are free to use any forum or format to communicate to voters as they see fit,” it said.