Florida poll predicts double-digit Trump victory over Biden

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The latest poll from Emerson College found that former President Donald Trump would defeat President Joe Biden in Florida by double digits, another sign the state is no longer the purple bellwether it once was.

Emerson found that in a matchup between the two, Trump comes out on top with 51% support to Biden’s 38% – a lead of 13 points. That margin would be an increase of 10 points in favor of Trump from November 2020. 11% were undecided.

When the undecideds were pushed to give which candidate they lean towards, if they had to choose between Trump and Biden, the result is 56%-44% in Trump’s favor – a 12-point race.

Trump won Florida in 2020 by around 3% and in 2016 by just over 1%.

While Gov. Ron DeSantis and statewide Republicans all won the state in 2022 by around 20%, presidential turnout patterns tend to be different from midterm elections.

Multiple other polls have found that Florida is not “in play” for the Biden campaign and Democrats as well, but the Emerson result is the most overwhelming in months in favor of the former president.

After abortion made the ballot as a result of a Supreme Court of Florida ruling, the Florida Democratic Party and Biden’s campaign swiftly came out saying the state is “winnable.”

Despite these hopes, the GOP registration lead is now nearing 900,000 voters – around a million voter shift from four years ago.

“Man, @JoeBiden has a different definition of winnable than I do,” said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power in response to the Emerson poll.

According to party registration trends analyzed by Florida’s Voice in April, Trump has the strong likelihood of winning by anywhere from 5% to 13%.