Latest Florida poll confirms state is increasingly out of reach for Biden
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – Florida is a severely under-polled state compared to the 2020 election and others past, but one recent March poll confirms the state has become increasingly out of reach for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.
Republicans swept the state by around 20% in the 2022 midterms. Before then, in 2020, Trump won the prior solid purple state by over 3%, more than his 2016 margin in the state of a little over 1%.
The latest poll from St. Pete Polls, conducted March 11-13 – the first since last year – former President Donald Trump leads Biden by 6%.
For comparison, in 2020, only a few out of dozens of polls had Trump winning narrowly – and of those, all were 3% in favor of Trump or less.
There is not much else polling data to go off of in Florida, another perceptive sign of the state’s increasingly red swing.
Forecasters are also not putting Florida much in play this cycle either – some examples being CNN, The Hill and DecisionDeskHQ, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Race to the WH. View the March electoral college forecast based on the polling averages here.
Florida polls stretching from October to December 2023 all found a race in favor of Trump from the 7% to 11% range.
Florida’s Voice documented in late-January that the state is more than in recent memory out-of-reach for Democrats, but despite that, Trump’s campaign won’t take it for granted.
Based on party registration data and historical trends, Trump has the strong potential to win the Sunshine State by a margin near or more than 10%.
While 2022 was a strong showing for Republicans, much of that was attributed to lower Democratic turnout compared to presidential years and a strong showing with independents.
Statistically, in modern history, the Democratic candidate performs worse in Florida relative to the total registered Democrats in comparison to the Republican candidate.
And as of March, Republicans lead Democrats by over 850,000 voters. In both 2020 and 2016, Democrats still held a registration lead.
The polls were only one point off of Trump’s margin in 2016. In 2020, they predicted a Biden win of 0.9%, but Trump won the state by 3.3%.
