Ron DeSantis proves the polls wrong in Iowa after taking second place
DES MOINES, Iowa – Former President Donald Trump won the Republican Iowa caucus by around 30 points Monday night, in line with reporting of polling averages.
Final polling projections expected Trump to finish the night with around 52% support, and unofficial results as of Tuesday hand him 51%.
The polls also expected former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to finish with around 19%, in line with unofficial results.
They also expected businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has suspended his campaign, to finish with around 6.5% support, slightly under his nearly 8%.
However, the polling averages called for Gov. Ron DeSantis to finish third place behind Haley at around 15.6%. With his second place finish at 21%, those polls were wrong outside the margin of error.
As Florida’s Voice reported just hours before caucus doors opened, polls have historically underestimated DeSantis, and a normal polling error would have placed him at second near 20% – in line with the unofficial results giving him 21%.
When comparing the results to the polls, here’s how far off the polls were. A “+” indicates a poll overestimated a candidate while a “-” indicates the poll underestimated. Generally, an error of a couple points can be expected and is within polls’ margin of error.
| Candidate | Expected vote share | Result vote share | Poll deviance |
| Donald Trump | 52.60% | 51% | +1.6% |
| Ron DeSantis | 15.65% | 21.2% | -5.55% |
| Nikki Haley | 18.7% | 19.1% | -0.4% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 6.45% | 7.7% | +1.25% |
Haley surged to second in the last few weeks leading up to the caucus in polling while DeSantis saw a dip. He was ranked second in the state for the entire 2024 primary cycle until the new year.
The polling error of over 5.5% against DeSantis is in line with the polling underestimation of him in his last two gubernatorial races.
The scene gets bleaker after Iowa
In New Hampshire, the RealClearPolling aggregate placed DeSantis behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has now dropped out.
Even so, polls suggest DeSantis was around 1.5% above businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, 6.5% to 5%.
Assuming Christie’s support distributes evenly, the governor would take third place in New Hampshire, where Haley polls much higher than she does in Iowa, near 30%. Trump is polling near 44%.
If, and when, DeSantis will drop out
DeSantis said at his campaign speech after the caucus results that he’d be continuing in the primary.
“We’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa,” the governor said.
“I am gonna get the job done for this country,” he said. “I am not gonna make any excuses […] I will not let you down.”
The governor and his team previously starkly denied any allegation he intends to drop out if he loses to Trump in Iowa.
DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin shot down the rumor, saying “Team Trump must be getting nervous” and characterizing it as “fake news.”
