Voter trends paint worrying trend for Lois Frankel, a worthy GOP challenger in Andrew Gutmann

BOYNTON BEACH, Fla. – Florida Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel has been a fixture in Florida politics for decades now.

A traditionally very liberal Jewish American, in a very liberal Jewish district, has been a winning combination for her. But, the times and the tide may be changing.

Consider the times. For years now, Frankel has entrenched herself as a potent Nancy Pelosi ally and an outspoken figurehead for women’s rights and the Democratic Party’s tax-and-spend caucus. 

But the times are changing. Frankel’s longstanding “get whatever I want” standing with party leadership has suffered a blow with Pelosi’s announced retirement. 

Also, her alignment with the shrill, anti-Jewish and pro-Palestinian voices of “The Squad” are no longer paying her political dividends.

The Democratic Party has been completely taken over by a radicalized, anti-Jew movement. The post-Oct. 7 rallies in support of Hamas and their massacre of innocent Jewish citizens were loudly supported by the fiercest elements of the Democratic base.

This is now leading to a severe erosion of the Democratic base in key areas of Jewish voter concentration.  Hence, a tidal effect.

Consider that tide. Frankel’s district is contained entirely within Palm Beach County. Gov. Ron DeSantis won the county in 2022, and at book closing in October of that year, Democrats still had a 110,000 vote advantage over Republicans.

Today, that Democratic lead has shrunk to only 60,000 – that’s almost a 50% loss.

If the same trend continues year on year, the parties could be almost at parity countywide by October before the election.

Now, consider Frankel’s district specifically. The tidal effect is wearing her down. In 2022, 42% of the district was Democratic, 27% Republican and 30% non-partisan.

As of October of last year, that number had changed. Democrats had lost 2%, and NPAs gained close to 3%.  Republicans had picked up about 1%.

But after the Hamas attacks and the tepid response from President Joe Biden, the heavily Jewish district has been hemorrhaging Democratic voters – with seven Democratic voters switching to Republican to every one Republican switching to Democratic over the last three months.

Now, today, the district is 40% Democratic, almost 30% Republican and almost 32% non-partisan.  If this trend continues, this district won’t just be a long shot, it will be in play.

We can never ignore the context of the competition. Frankel is a titan who has been around forever.

But this year, Republicans may have finally found a match. Andrew Gutmann, the money-leader by a country mile in this contest, is Jewish, an investment banker and a political refugee from woke New York.

He made a splash on the national scene during the coronavirus pandemic when he and his wife took issue with the new curriculum of their daughter’s exclusive prep school that emphasized critical theory elements, fueling the neo-racism and antisemitism of the Democratic Party.

In other words, he’s got a story: it’s a good one, and it stands in stark contrast to the Frankel’s cozying up to her friends from the “river to the sea” movement.

Beating Frankel won’t be easy, but the district is getting better – much better, and the Republicans could have a champion in Gutmann who can go toe-to-toe with her on the issue that may end up being the Democratic Party’s most significant vulnerability since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.