Republicans are 85 voters away from flipping a county red, approach 900,000 statewide lead
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Worrying trends are continuing for Florida Democrats, who are losing voters while state Republicans broaden their lead.
In fact, the GOP is just 85 voters away, or 0.72%, away from flipping Madison County red.
And as of April 18, Florida Republicans lead Democrats by 897,537 statewide.
The GOP’s lead is increasing rapidly; it was only April 4, a couple weeks ago, when the GOP’s lead was below 890,000.
As Republicans near the 900,000 landmark, data suggests they could have a lead of one million voters come the November election, if trends continue in their favor.
Such a lead would be another sign of dismay for Democrats’ hopes to “take back Florida.” In 2020, Democrats led by nearly 100,000 voters, the same year former President Donald Trump expanded his win margin from 2016 from around 1% to more than 3%.
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This November, polls and party data suggest Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in the Sunshine State by nearly double digits or more.
While it has only been a couple weeks, Republicans haven’t been able to continue strong momentum in the Tampa Bay area in Hillsborough County, which has added some Democratic voters, expanding the GOP’s deficit there back over 1%. It previously dipped slightly below that margin.
Still, the GOP is just over 9,000 voters away from flipping Hillsborough.
Duval County, which encompasses the Jacksonville area, is still trending Republican. Just in February, the GOP’s deficit there dipped below 3%.
Now, that deficit is 2.66%, or 17,116 voters.
Based on current data, the GOP could in the near future flip Madison, Hillsborough and Duval County. At that point, they’d outnumber Democrats in 59 of Florida’s 67 counties.
Democrats’ last remaining strongholds include Gadsden, Leon, Broward, Alachua, Orange and Osceola County by registration.
Palm Beach, once traditionally deeper blue, is dipping for Democrats, who now lead the county by 6%.
Miami-Dade County could also soon be on the GOP’s flip radar. As of April, Democrats lead there by 4.77%.
Statewide, Democrats are taking pounding losses to their voter base. They have lost over 600,000 voters since the November 2022 elections, while Republicans have only lost around 82,000.
While both have technically lost voters since then, Republicans began making gains faster than the voter roll maintenance, and other reasons for voters’ registrations shifting/rescinding, starting in 2024.
Democrats, on the other hand, show few signs of slowing down their losses, losing over 8,000 from February to March alone. That same month, Republicans gained nearly 30,000 voters.
Both parties recently went under new leadership under Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power and Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried.
